Author Topic: Real Estate Trends  (Read 66684 times)


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1175 on: November 01, 2018, 07:27:41 am »
Inland Empire homeownership hits 8-year high

Home ownership in the Inland Empire is at an eight-year high, according to new data from the United States Census Bureau.

The study found that 64.7 percent of Inland households lived in homes they owned in the third quarter. The area ranked 34th out of 75 large cities reviewed in the government study.

The level of ownership in San Bernardino and Riverside counties had been close to 70 percent in 2006, as lenders offered what appeared to be great deals to buyers. That declined sharply after the recession triggered stricter lending standards, at the same time unemployment in the region soared well into double digits. The third-quarter result is the highest level of home ownership since the second quarter of 2010. The Inland Empire’s unemployment rate hit 15.1 percent in the summer of that year, an all-time high.

Unemployment was estimated at 4.1 percent in September,  according to the state Employment Development Department’s recent report.

In the five years following the recession, from 2009 to 2014, homeownership in the two-county region averaged 58.9 percent. During the years before the downturn, the average was 67 percent.

The report comes as the region’s housing market is tightening. A report issued earlier this week by Irvine-based housing tracker CoreLogic showed home sales in September declined 16.4 percent in San Bernardino County and 10.1 percent in Riverside County. Declines were even steeper in the coastal counties.

Riverside County also saw its median home price hit its highest level since the Great Recession, rising 8.1 percent to $389,000, the highest median since August 2007. San Bernardino County rose 1.5 percent.

Higher home prices, a weak supply of homes on the market, and increasing interest rates were cited as reasons for the slowdown. Across Southern California’s six counties, it was the deepest sales drop in the last eight years.

Those factors, however, appear to be pushing some homebuyers to act now, people in the industry say.

Yvonne Martinez, an agent with First Team Real Estate’s Corona office, said buyers are still moving east from coastal counties. Many owned condominiums in Orange and Los Angeles counties and want to find an Inland Empire home before the interest rates increase again.

“They want to get off the fence,” Martinez said.

Jordan Levine, senior economist with the California Association of Realtors, agrees the possibility of a 50 basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve in December is an incentive to buy now. Such an increase could add $200 to the typical monthly mortgage payment, he said.

The Inland economy has been gaining momentum, with an estimated 39,800 new jobs created in the last 12 months. But residents who want to get into the market are competing with coastal-based buyers, many of whom have larger incomes.

“Incomes in the Inland Empire are starting to rise, but you can see what happens to price growth when they compete with coastal buyers,” Levine said, “Demand gets pushed up.”


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1174 on: October 30, 2018, 04:45:07 pm »
Is winter coming for Southern California's housing market? Sales are falling and price cuts are more common

A chill is settling over the once white-hot Southern California housing market.

Listings are up. Sales are falling. Price reductions are becoming more common.

The latest evidence came Tuesday when CoreLogic released its monthly market report. Sales across the region plummeted nearly 18% in September compared with a year earlier, the largest drop in almost eight years. The median home price in the six-county region rose 3.6% to $523,000, the smallest rise in more than three years.

With the economy still growing, experts don’t see any immediate prospect of home prices plunging, as they did in 2008 when they dropped nearly 30% amid the financial crisis. But real estate agents said buyers are pulling back because housing has simply become too expensive — a situation made worse by the recent surge in mortgage interest rates. Some who can still afford a home are holding back because they don’t want to buy at the peak.

“Prices have gotten ahead of themselves,” said Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. “I think it’s very possible the market is going to cool down for a while.”

That would be welcome news for many would-be buyers. The housing market has been on the upswing for more than six years. Prices surged in major markets across the nation as rock-bottom mortgage rates and an improving economy collided with a shortage of listings.

That’s especially true in California, where experts say opposition to development has long stymied companies from building enough homes for everyone who wants to live here. Million-dollar listings have popped up even in some working-class Los Angeles communities, as have yellow signs on which investors promise to buy your house fast with cash.

Now the housing market rocket appears to be sputtering. Mirroring a national trend, home sales in Southern California are falling, reaching the lowest level for a September since 2007. More homes are on offer, increasing supply as demand weakens.

According to online brokerage Redfin, listings in September grew in all six Southern California counties compared with a year earlier, ranging from a 2% gain in San Bernardino County to a 32% leap in San Diego County. Zillow estimated even larger increases in listings, ranging from 14.6% in San Bernardino County to 39% in San Diego County.

Part of the slowdown is seasonal, reflecting that sales tend to tail off in late summer and pick up again in spring. However, data indicate the market is weaker now than at the same time last year.

Also, the share of listings in the past two months whose prices have been cut is at multiyear highs — a sure sign that sellers are scaling back ambitions. Redfin says Los Angeles County saw price cuts on 23.8% of listings in September, up from 17.9% a year earlier. Data from Zillow show 15.5% of listings had price cuts last month, the highest level in at least eight years.

That includes a three-bedroom house in West Adams that was listed in August for $869,000. Last month, the price dropped to $849,000. At a Saturday afternoon open house, real estate agent Rafaela Magdaleno stood in the empty, remodeled home waiting for potential buyers. About eight people came through in the first three hours — a “so-so” showing, she said.

Magdaleno said two people mentioned they would put in offers, but she didn’t expect others to do so.

“They like the house, but they don’t qualify [for financing],” she said. “They say it’s too expensive.”

To some extent, home listings are being swollen by owners who believe the market will turn south and want to get out ahead of it.

Barbara Boyd, 61, was recently laid off from her job as a project coordinator at NBCUniversal and worried that she might lose the equity she had built up in her five-bedroom home in Valley Glen, which she bought in 2011 for $615,000. The home is now in escrow for $1 million and Boyd plans to move to Arizona.

“At a certain point, even if it doesn’t crash, it’s going to stop,” Boyd said. “I am not going to gamble .… I am pulling the plug.”

Many economists believe that what's coming is not a crash, but rather a cooling period caused by rising interest rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.86% last week, up nearly a percentage point from a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac. The increase adds $228 to what previously would've been a $2,632 monthly mortgage payment on a $523,000 house.

“Interest rates are shifting up and it causes the market to pause,” said Christopher Thornberg, the founding partner of Beacon Economics, who predicted last decade’s housing meltdown. “This is how it always works.”

Many experts don’t expect home values to fall unless there is a recession, which they consider unlikely in the near future. Stock market gyrations aside, economic indicators remain strong and people who are buying homes can largely afford them, Thornberg said.

“There is not one reason to think a little bit of a slowdown turns into anything more dramatic than that,” Thornberg said. “Real estate bubbles are driven by overbuilding or overborrowing and you don’t have either one right now.”

Bill McBride, who writes the respected financial blog Calculated Risk, thinks the current market shift is similar to one several years ago. That’s when the Federal Reserve signaled it would slow its purchase of bonds, and interest rates suddenly surged in an event called the “taper tantrum.”

The sharp rise in rates helped halt an explosive run of double-digit home-price gains. Annual price appreciation in L.A. and Orange counties slowed to 4.9% in October 2014, down from a high of 22.1% a year earlier, according to the Case-Shiller index, viewed as one of the most reliable gauges of home prices.

Home price gains hovered in the 5% and 6% range for the next three years before accelerating to a high of 8.2% in April. On Tuesday, the latest Case-Shiller release showed price increases are down to 6.2%.

Not everyone agrees with the soft-landing scenario. Green of USC believes prices could fall 5% to 10% over the next two years, even absent a recession.

Green noted price growth has outpaced rents, which can be a better gauge of what incomes will support. Buyers, on the other hand, can be prone to overpay because they see their home as a financial investment that will increase in value.

At a certain point, they can’t stretch any further.

“I wouldn’t expect to see a big pullback,” he said. “But prices could fall a little bit.”


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1173 on: October 21, 2018, 06:58:53 am »
US home sales fell in September to slowest pace in 3 years

U.S. home sales fell for the sixth straight month in September, a sign that housing has increasingly become a weak spot for the economy.

The National Association of Realtors said Friday that sales declined 3.4 percent last month, the biggest drop in 2 ½ years, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 million. That's the lowest sales pace since November 2015.

Hurricane Florence dragged sales in North Carolina, but even excluding the storm's effects, sales would have fallen more than 2 percent, the NAR said. After reaching the highest level in a decade last year, sales of existing homes have declined steadily in 2018 amid rapid price increases, higher mortgage rates and a tight supply of available houses.

Still, analysts are mostly optimistic about the broader economy. Most forecast growth will top 3 percent at an annual rate in the July-September quarter, after a robust expansion of 4.2 percent in the second quarter.

"Housing is no longer a tail wind for the economy, but the headwinds are blowing very gently," said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, before the report was released.

Housing will likely weaken further in the coming months. September's weakness came before mortgage rates jumped further this month to their highest levels in seven years. Sales fell 4.1 percent in September from a year ago.

"Without a doubt there is a clear shift in the market," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

One sign of the shift is that demand for existing homes is slowing. Home prices are rising at a slower rate and the supply of available houses, while low, is increasing. Buyer traffic has also declined, Yun said.

And with rents also stabilizing in many cities, many would-be buyers may not feel as much pressure to buy a new home.

"Renting itself may be seen as a better bargain as rising mortgage interest rates, still-rising home prices and sluggish wage growth dent the affordability advantage of a typical mortgage," said Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at real estate data provider Zillow.

Sales have fallen by the most in the West, where most of the nation's hottest real estate markets are located and where prices have soared for several years. Sales tumbled 12.2 percent in that region in the past year, compared with just 5.6 percent in the Northeast and 1.5 percent in the Midwest. They dropped just 0.5 percent in the South from a year earlier, despite a sharp decline in September due to Hurricane Florence.

The highest-priced homes are also reporting slower sales, a shift from earlier this year, when sales slowdowns were concentrated in mid-priced and cheaper homes. Homes priced at $1 million and higher saw sales drop 2 percent from a year ago.

Higher borrowing costs are making housing less affordable. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage slipped this week but remained near a seven-year high of 4.85 percent. A year ago, it stood at 3.88 percent.

There are also signs that home owners are increasingly unwilling to sell as mortgage rates rise. That's because many have rates below 4 percent, so selling a home and buying a new one would require them to accept a higher rate.

The Realtors surveyed consumers and found that 16 percent are unwilling to give up their mortgage rate and buy a new home. That's up from a typical level of 10 percent.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1172 on: October 18, 2018, 07:44:14 am »
Southern California to see smaller rent hikes over the next two years, forecast says

Southern California rents will keep rising over the next two years, but at a slower pace as vacancy rates rise slightly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, according to USC’s Casden Multifamily Forecast released Wednesday, Oct. 17.

The annual forecast, produced by the University of Southern California’s Lusk Center for Real Estate in conjunction with Beacon Economics, also determined that low-wage earners are not the only ones facing an affordable housing crisis.

“We continue to find affordability issues across the board,” the forecast said. “We find that for nearly every occupation in Southern California, there is not an affordable unit at the median (rent).”

Some of the worst affordability problems are in Los Angeles County.

Despite having the second-lowest median income in the region, Los Angeles County has the region’s highest rents.

New construction has put a lid on rent gains in L.A. and Orange counties, however.

The most affordable rents are in the Inland Empire. But because incomes are lower there, residents in the Riverside-San Bernardino county areas “faced the highest rent burden across all of the Southern California metro areas.” Nearly 59 percent of Inland Empire households are rent burdened.

San Diego County tenants face the biggest rent increases. Rents there are projected to rise 10.6 percent there over the next two years to an average of $2,187 a month in 2020.

Forecast highlights include:

— Los Angeles County: The average rent is projected to increase 1.7 percent to $2,305 a month in 2019, up from $2,267 this year, the forecast said. In 2020, rents are projected to increase 2.3 percent more to $2,358 a month.

Vacancy rates are projected to rise slightly but remain low enough to continue pushing up rents, the forecast said. The vacancy rate is projected to increase to 4.3 percent in both 2019 and 2020, up from 4 percent this year.

— Orange County: The average rent is projected to increase to $2,071 a month in 2019, up from $2,035 this year, a 1.8 percent gain. The average rent in 2020 is forecast at $2,087, up 0.8 percent.

Next year’s vacancy rate is projected to increase to 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent this year. In 2020, it’s forecast to go up to 4.6 percent.

— Inland Empire: The average rent is projected to increase 3.1 percent to $1,501 next year, up from $1,457 this year. It’s projected to rise 2.3 percent more to $1,535 in 2020.

Next year’s vacancy rate is expected to remain unchanged from this year’s rate of 3.8 percent. In 2020, it’s projected to decrease to 3.7 percent.

The Casden forecast compared renters at various income levels with comparable-level rents, finding affordability issues across the board, the report said.

For example, if the 25th percentile household in Los Angeles County paid rent at the 25th percentile, about 58 percent of its income would go to paying rent, the forecast said.

Median income households paying median rents would spend about 40 percent of their income on rent. The only occupations not having rent affordability issues are those in the science, computer mathematics and architectural engineering fields.

“Even when we look at people at different educational attainment levels, every group has an affordability problem,” the report said.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1171 on: September 28, 2018, 02:15:02 pm »
That's hardly your typical Costa Mesa neighborhood, it's more like Newport Beach (without the boat dock).


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1170 on: September 24, 2018, 03:18:50 pm »
$609 s/f for a condo in Costa Mesa?

Condo For Sale In Costa Mesa Comes With Tesla Model 3

With more and more home sellers dropping their prices, one homeowner in Costa Mesa went with a different tactic to entice interest in a Costa Mesa condo: throwing in a white Tesla Model 3.

The owner of a $1.4 million condo, located between Costa Mesa’s Fairview Park and Talbert Regional Park, is hoping the luxury electric car will sweeten the deal for anyone interested in his listing, according to the Orange County Register.

Real estate website Redfin found earlier this month that increasing number of home-sellers are dropping their prices, even in the hottest markets. In the month ending Sept. 16, 26.6 percent of homes listed for sale had a price drop, which Redfin says is the highest level on record since it began tracking the metric in 2010.

As for the Costa Mesa condo that comes with its own Tesla, it features three bedrooms and three bathrooms spread across three stories and 2,300 square feet. It also has a rooftop deck and ocean views. The Tesla it comes with was purchased in May, and has less than 5,000 miles on it.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1169 on: September 21, 2018, 12:02:07 pm »
After years of dramatic increases, rents are finally showing signs of slowing

After a remarkable run-up in housing costs that has crimped budgets, forced families from their neighborhoods and contributed to homelessness, it appears rent growth is slowing in Southern California and across the nation.

Experts attribute the tapering in part to an increase in new apartment buildings that, although not giving tenants the upper hand, is giving them a bit more leverage than in years past. And after years of steady increases, some renters are simply unable or unwilling to stretch further, with the richest among them choosing a mortgage instead.

“There is only so much rent you can get,” said Cynthia Wray, senior director of acquisitions for ‎FPI Management Inc., which manages 75,000 apartments in California. “At a certain point you can’t go any higher.”

The latest evidence of a slowdown came Thursday, when real estate firm Zillow released data showing the national median rent for a vacant apartment dipped in August from a year earlier. It is the first time that’s happened since 2012. In Los Angeles County, the median fell 0.5% to $2,442, after rising an average of 4.3% last year and 6.5% in 2016.

Lower rents would be a shock for many of those living in California. But just because the median rent — the point at which half the apartments are renting for more and half for less — dipped doesn’t mean rents are suddenly falling for tenants. Vacancy remains very low. Data providers other than Zillow do not show a rent decline, but a slowdown is clearly evident in their surveys.

The deceleration is most pronounced for more expensive rents, which is also where most of the new apartments are aimed. But data show slackening in older buildings as well.

The slowdown comes as Californians prepare to vote on a major rent control measure in November. Tenant advocates say the current development boom hasn’t helped low-income tenants much, with some even arguing new luxury housing can make apartments nearby more expensive by luring wealthier people and contributing to gentrification. But Brent Gaisford, director of Abundant Housing L.A., said recent rent data suggest that even new luxury buildings carry relief for lower-income renters, by causing wealthier tenants to move out of older buildings and thus freeing up units for less-well-off households.

“When more units are on the market, landlords have less power,” Gaisford said. “Hopefully we can keep that going.”

In so-called Class A buildings — those that tend to be newer and more luxurious — data from RealPage show the median rent across L.A. County was up 3.1% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Rent growth in those higher-end buildings peaked at 6.3% at the end of 2015 and was as low as 1.9% in the fourth quarter of last year.

In lesser-quality Class B buildings, median rent rose 3.3% in the second quarter of this year, compared with a peak of 7.8% in the first quarter of 2016. In Class C buildings, which tend to be the oldest, most rundown properties, rents rose 4.1% in the second quarter after rising as much as 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2016.

In Orange County, median rents in Class A buildings rose 2.2% in the second quarter, 2.4% in Class B and 2.6% in Class C.

Rent growth in the Bay Area has also tapered off from the sharp increases seen several years ago.

Among those who stand to benefit from the slowdown is Darrell Alfonso, who with his girlfriend moved into a $2,115-a-month, one-bedroom in Palms on the Westside of Los Angeles in 2016. A year later, when their lease came up for renewal at the non-rent-controlled apartment, he expected a sizable increase. Instead, he said they signed up for another year at only $25 more a month, a 1.2% increase. That’s below even the maximum 3% allowed in L.A. rent-control buildings.

“I was a bit surprised,” said Alfonso, a 32-year-old marketing manager, who if he renews again this fall can probably count on not seeing much of an increase.

Mark Hammerschmitt, who is the principal owner of the complex, said he is moderating rents now in response to the competition from new buildings opening nearby on Venice Boulevard and Overland Avenue, as well as in downtown L.A. By holding down increases and adding renovations at the 1980s-era complex such as a resident lounge and freshening up the pool area, he's hoping to limit vacancies.

“We can read the tea leaves,” Hammerschmitt said. “I don’t want my residents leaving.”

Of course, for the nearly 2 million California renters paying more than half their income on rent and utilities, even a small increase isn’t much relief. Furthermore, the slowdown itself is bifurcated in a way that county-level data masks, according to real estate professionals and tenant advocates.

Gary DeLong, vice president of legislation for the Apartment Assn., California Southern Cities, said that although “stable” neighborhoods are seeing rent increases of 2% to 3% a year, dramatic jumps occur in gentrifying areas where landlords are renovating buildings to cater to an influx of higher-income tenants priced out of other communities.

Take the Westlake and Boyle Heights neighborhoods near downtown. Those lower-income communities are an increasingly attractive location for people who make more but can’t afford downtown.

That means even though lots of new units are opening nearby, there are still plenty of opportunities for landlords to make formerly low-rent buildings pricier. Some tenants in those two neighborhoods report rent increases of hundreds of dollars a month or have simply been given no-fault eviction notices to leave in 60 days.

Luis Herrera, 38, recently started paying around half the income from his IT job for the one-bedroom in Westlake he shares with his father. He said his landlord raised his rent to $1,300, an increase of 24%. “I will have to cut back,” he said.

Economists generally agree the root cause of California’s housing woes is that for decades, too few market-rate homes have been built relative to job and population growth. They have urged a loosening of development restrictions to expand supply across neighborhoods.

One area where it’s relatively easy to build is downtown Los Angeles. Zoning that’s friendly to dense development and a lack of neighborhood push-back have helped make downtown the epicenter of the apartment-building boom.

For years, cranes have dotted the skyline and some of the largest projects are now nearing completion. L.A. companies Jamison Services and Hankey Investment Co., for example, recently started leasing apartments at Circa, their 648-unit twin glass tower project across from Staples Center, where a one-bedroom unit starts at $3,050.

A few blocks away, at Spring and 8th streets, Canadian developer Holland Partner Group is wrapping up work on about 630 units in two towers called the Griffin and the Grace. There, and at its nearly completed 341-unit Alina building on 9th Street, the developer is offering four weeks free to sign a lease.

Other construction hot spots are Koreatown, Warner Center and the Culver City area. In all, CoStar Group Inc. estimates nearly 30,000 new units will hit the market in L.A. County by the end of 2020, boosting supply by about 3.3% and leading to further slowing of rent growth.

Steve Basham, senior market analyst with CoStar, said rents are unlikely to decline in most neighborhoods unless there’s a recession, but places awash in construction, such as downtown, could see dips. So could certain pricey markets including Santa Monica, where there’s simply not enough people to pay today’s sky-high rent.

“We are coming into the peak of the building boom,” he said.

If voters in November approve the rent-control initiative, Proposition 10, it would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Act, which bars cities from imposing rent control on apartments built after Feb. 1, 1995, and in some cases even before.

The real estate industry has come out strongly against the measure, arguing rent control makes developers less likely to build and will only make rents soar as supply is reduced. Rent control ordinances historically do not cover new construction, but the industry argues that if Costa-Hawkins and its date restrictions go away, some developers won’t build because they’d fear cities would one day cap those rents too.

“The slowdown in rents is Exhibit A for rejecting Prop. 10,” said Steven Maviglio, spokesman for the anti-Proposition 10 campaign.

Tenant advocates scoff at the notion rent controls would limit building and say price caps and eviction protections are needed because a slowdown in rent growth doesn’t do much to help those already in dire straits.

“What does slowing mean? It’s irrelevant,” said Larry Gross, executive director of the Coalition for Economic Survival. “For the plight of tenants, especially those who are being displaced from long-term lower rent buildings, it is still an economic nightmare to find something affordable.”


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1168 on: September 14, 2018, 03:15:00 pm »
Little wonder why some people are leaving the state when the median price of a home in OC is just over a mil. I can't possibly see how a young family with a couple of kids and a decent income can afford to buy a nice home in a desirable community in CA.

A generation plans an exodus from California

California is the great role model for America, particularly if you read the Eastern press. Yet few boosters have yet to confront the fact that the state is continuing to hemorrhage people at a higher rate, with particular losses among the family-formation age demographic critical to California’s future.

Since the recovery began in 2010, California’s net domestic out-migration, according to the American community survey, has almost tripled to 140,000 annually. Over that time, the state has lost half a million net migrants with the bulk of that coming from the Los Angeles-Orange County area.

In contrast, during the first years of the decade the Bay Area, particularly San Francisco, enjoyed a renaissance of in-migration, something not seen since before 2000. But that is changing. A recent Redfin report suggests that the Bay Area, the focal point of California’s boom, now leads the country in outbound home searches, which could suggest a further worsening of the trend.

Who’s leaving?

One of the perennial debates about migration, particularly in California, is the nature of the outmigration. The state’s boosters, and the administration itself, like to talk as if California is simply giving itself an enema — expelling its waste — while making itself an irresistible beacon to the “best and brightest.”

The reality, however, is more complicated than that. An analysis of IRS data from 2015-16, the latest available, shows that while roughly half those leaving the state made under $50,000 annually, half made above that. Roughly one in four made over $100,000 and another quarter earned a middle-class paycheck between $50,000 and $100,000. We also lose among the wealthiest segment, the people best able to withstand California’s costs, but by much smaller percentages.

The key issue for California, however, lies with the exodus of people around child-bearing years. The largest group leaving the state — some 28 percent — is 35 to 44, the prime ages for families. Another third come from those 26 to 34 and 45 to 54, also often the age of parents.

The key: Too expensive housing, not enough high-wage jobs

Our analysis? California is in danger of pricing itself out for moderate wage earners, and particularly families. Taxes, poor educational performance, congestion and signs of slowing growth are no doubt contributing factors. But the big enchilada in California — by far the largest source of distortion in living costs — is housing. Over 90 percent of the difference in costs between California’s coastal metropolises and the country derives from housing. Coastal California is affordable for roughly 15 percent of residents, down from 30 percent in 2000 and 30 percent in the interior, from nearly 60 percent in 2000. In the country as a whole, affordability hovers at roughly 60 percent.

High housing prices hurt most young, middle-class and aspiring, often minority, working-class families. California’s prices are particularly bloated, over 161 percent higher, in comparison with national averages, in the lower-end “starter home” category. In Los Angeles and the Bay Area, a monthly mortgage takes, on average, close to 40 percent of income, compared to 15 percent nationally

Over time these factors — along with prospects of reduced immigration — will impact severely the state’s future. California is already seeing its population aged 6 to 17 decline. This reflects a continued drop in fertility in comparison to less regulated, and less costly, states such as Utah, Texas and Tennessee. These areas are generally those experiencing the biggest surge in millennial populations.

Progressive or regressive?

Today even some of the state’s determined progressives understand that taking the “California model” national seems implausible when significant numbers of Californians are headed in large numbers to red Texas or purple Las Vegas. Californians are not fooled; a recent USC Downside/Los Angeles Times poll found that 17 percent believe the state’s current generation is doing better than previous ones. More than 50 percent thought younger Californians were doing worse.

The old folks are not the ones most alienated. A survey by the UCLA Luskin School suggests that 18-to-29-year-olds are the least satisfied with life in Los Angeles while seniors were most positive. In the Bay Area, according to ULI, 74 percent of millennials are considering an exodus. It appears paying high prices to live permanently as renters in dense, small apartments — the lifestyle most promoted by planners, the media and the state — may not be as attractive as advertised.

California’s media and political elites like to bask in the mirror and praise their political correctness. They focus on passing laws about banning straws, the makeup of corporate boards, prohibiting advertising for unenlightened fundamentalist preaching or staging a non-stop, largely ineffective climate change passion play. Yet what our state really needs are leaders interested in addressing more basic issues such as middle-class jobs and affordable single-family housing.

The question is not how to handle a surge of new Californians, but how to prevent a greater exodus and perhaps even de-population. If that means replacing our current densification mantra with something that meets our demographic needs, so be it.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1167 on: September 10, 2018, 05:12:08 pm »

Orange County’s new-home median selling price is $1.06 million

Just HOW much for a new Orange County home?

In the 22 business days ending Aug. 8, CoreLogic found the median selling price of a newly constructed Orange County home was $1.06 million, up 24 percent vs. the year-ago period. If that price held for the full month it would break the record high of $1,014,000 million set in July.

The seven-figure price did not scare off buyers: 326 homes sold in the period, down 2.4 percent in a year.

Orange County’s new home median first hit $250,000 in November 1999. It took 13 years and four months to double past $500,000 in March 2013. Now five years and four months later, new homes have doubled again to surpass $1 million.

Let’s not overlook the fact that Orange County homebuilders are trying to sell their largest supply of completed new homes in 12 years. According to Metrostudy, local builders had 1,022 newly constructed residential units ready for immediate sale in the second quarter, up 340, or 50 percent, in a year.

“Standing inventory is not being absorbed as quickly by the market, due primarily to the growing share of luxury finished vacant inventory,” says Metrostudy analyst Drew Rodenbucher. “There is an enormous amount of pent-up demand below the $500,000 price point. However, there are few new homes below that price.

“In Orange County, finished-vacant inventory priced above $800,000 accounts for 70 percent of the total. As mortgage rates continue to rise and incomes struggle to grow, higher-priced inventory will be absorbed by the market at a slower rate.”

Overall purchases of all Orange County residences in the period totaled 3,217 — down 5.9 percent in a year. Sales were up in just 28 ZIPs of 83 total ZIP codes. Costs were likely a factor: the overall countywide median was $737,500 up 7.1 percent in a year. Prices were up in 64 ZIPs.

Builders’ share of all homes sold was 10.1 percent in the period vs. 9.8 percent a year ago. Single-family home resales were down 3.8 percent in a year. Condo resales fell 12 percent.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1166 on: September 09, 2018, 08:20:58 am »
There is a box at the bottom of the page in the link below where you can put in a zip code and see how other communities are doing.


Prior to the financial crisis, the median price for a previously owned single family house in this ZIP Code peaked at $459,000. After the bust, homes in this area fell to a median of $212,000.

As of the second quarter in 2018, the median was $395,000. This is a 13.94% decrease from the price before the crash.


Prior to the financial crisis, the median price for a previously owned single family house in this ZIP Code peaked at $261,000. After the bust, homes in this area fell to a median of $79,000.

As of the second quarter in 2018, the median was $225,000. This is a 13.79% decrease from the price before the crash.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1165 on: September 04, 2018, 08:30:44 am »
Southern California house prices rose between 6% and 7.6% in July, CoreLogic index shows

House prices rose by more than 7 percent over the past year in Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire and by almost 6 percent in Orange County, the CoreLogic Home Price Index released Tuesday, Sept. 4, shows. But those appreciation rates were down from gains seen earlier this year, a sign Southern California’s housing market is losing momentum.

Los Angeles County had the region’s highest house price appreciation, up 7.6 percent in the 12 months ending in July. The gain was 7.4 percent in the Inland Empire and 5.9 percent in Orange County.

By comparison, house price gains in Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire averaged above 8 percent in 2018 so far. Orange County’s gain averaged 6.2 percent in the first half of the year.

“With increased interest rates and home prices, the CoreLogic Home Price Index is rising at a slower rate than it was earlier this year,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic chief economist. “While markets in the western part of the country continue to experience rapid home-price growth, many of those metros are overvalued and will likely experience a slowdown soon.”

The CoreLogic HPI, based on comparisons of each house’s July price to its previous sale price, is the third key housing report show July price gains so far.

Last week, a separate CoreLogic study based on July median prices showed the typical Southern California house had an appreciation rate of 4.9 percent (compared with a 2018 average of 8.3 percent). Two weeks earlier, a  California Association of Realtors reported median house prices in the region up 5.1 percent (compared with a 2018 average of 8.6 percent).

Home prices increased nationally by 6.2 percent from July 2017 levels, the CoreLogic HPI showed. In California, prices rose 8.2 percent.

CoreLogic forecasters predicted prices will continue rising, but gains will continue to be smaller. They predicted the national home-price index will be up 5.1 percent next July.

“With fewer homes on the market, price pressure will continue to rise,” said CoreLogic President and CEO Frank Martell.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1164 on: August 17, 2018, 10:06:12 am »
New Zealand has banned the sale of homes to foreigners after too many people started treating the island like their doomsday hideout

New Zealand has banned foreigners for buying property there in response to skyrocketing house prices across the nation.

Parliament passed the law (the text of which is here) on Wednesday, barring most overseas visitors from purchasing homes or land.

"If you've got the right to live in New Zealand permanently, you've got the right to buy here. But otherwise it's not a right, it's a privilege," New Zealand's minister for economic development and trade David Parker said in a speech on Wednesday.

"We believe it's the birthright of New Zealanders to buy homes in New Zealand in a market that is shaped by New Zealand buyers, not by international price pressures."

People from Australia and Singapore will be exempt from the ban, as will foreigners with New Zealand residency.

The move aims to ease housing prices that have seen a sharp rise in recent years.

According to a 2017 report by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, property prices in Auckland had risen by $230,000 in just five years time.

And home ownership has decreased significantly among the population. Data from from the Statistics New Zealand Dwelling and Household Estimates showed that only 63.2 percent of people nationwide owned their own home in 2017 — the lowest proportion for decades.

The housing crisis has largely been pinned on wealthy overseas investors, mainly from China and Australia, swooping in on properties that would serve as hideaways far away from conflict sweeping over the rest of the world.

"It’s in the back of everybody’s mind at the moment. If there are, shall we say, changes, where can we go?," Michael Nock, a Hong Kong-based hedge-fund manager who owns a multimillion-dollar property in Queenstown, told the Guardian last year.

"I researched this problem dispassionately and settled on New Zealand … it is a small community that has the ability to be self-reliant, with a rule of law based on the English system. And it is stunningly beautiful – it ticked all the boxes."

Nock is not alone in his concerns. A recent New Yorker report suggested that hundreds, if not thousands, of super-wealthy silicon valley executives are secretly preparing for the apocalypse, and many think of New Zealand as the perfect location to ride out a doomsday scenario.

"Saying you’re ‘buying a house in New Zealand’ is kind of a wink, wink, say no more," Reid Hoffman, the co-founder of LinkedIn told the New Yorker. Hoffman estimated that at least fifty percent of Silicon Valley billionaires have acquired some type of "apocalypse insurance" in the form of a hideout in the US or abroad.

New Zealand's immigration websites saw a huge uptick in traffic following the 2016 US election, with an increase of  2,500% in traffic just 48 hours after Trump has won the presidency, the Guardian reported last year.

Several ultra-wealthy US celebrities, including former TV host Matt Lauer and billionaire venture capitalist and co-founder of Paypal Peter Thiel have already snapped up multi-million dollar homes in New Zealand's swanky Wanaka area.

Thiel also owns another $3.1 million property in Queenstown, and has repurposed one of the home's walk-in closet into a panic room.

"New Zealand is already utopia," Thiel told Business Insider in 2011.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1163 on: August 06, 2018, 05:04:15 pm »
I can't think of any state that welcomes Californians with open arms.

'They do not like Californians': How the Pacific Northwest is treating transplants

Californians who are fleeing their expensive homeland in search of a slower pace, more land, and homes that might actually sell around asking price are finding that once they arrive, their new neighbors aren't exactly rolling out the red carpet.

"I'm going to be honest with you. They do not like Californians," said Darlene Viviani, 58, who  moved to Lyle, Wash., a town east of Portland on the Oregon-Washington border.

"If anyone ever asked me, I told them I was Texan." Viviani had a convenient excuse: She grew up in Texas before she moved to the Bay Area, where she worked as a semi-conductor engineer for 30 years.

But others were not so lucky. Bay Area ex-pats we talked to say they've faced a range of backlash, from harmless jokes to threats of violence. One couple who transplanted to Portland in 2017 found their car and home spray-painted with messages like "Go back to California."

Nancy Fimbrez, 25, a Bay Area native who moved with her husband to Vancouver, Wash,. in 2017, said, "The people we've encountered in the Pacific Northwest are very nice and won't say anything directly to our faces." But they've spotted graffiti saying "F— California" or "California sucks" around the area.

The reason for all the hate? Paul Hanes, who moved to Portland 40 years ago from Los Angeles, has a theory.

"Portland has gone downhill fast. Too many people have moved here," Hanes said. "Traffic is horrendous. Air pollution is increasing. Many sterile cookie-cutter apartment buildings are being built, [which are] out of character with old Portland.

"Portland is becoming all I didn't like about L.A."

The Pacific Northwest is the most popular destination for Californians fed up with (or priced out of) the Golden State. The Portland metro area has been growing by 30 to 40,000 people annually since 2015, reports the Oregonian. In 2017, people were flocking to Seattle more than any other large U.S. city. As for Idaho, the new darling of the region, the state gained 81,000 residents in 2016, KTVB reports. About 21 percent of those newcomers were from California.

In a way, KTVB's digital managing editor is one of those newcomers. Jessica Mullins, 32, moved back to her home state in June after living in Marin for 10 years.

"I grew up here so I totally understand where everyone is coming from. It's frustrating to see people come in and be able to buy homes you can't afford or at a price locals wouldn't pay for," Mullins said.

Transplants we spoke to said they've heard all the stereotypes about Californians: newcomers throwing money around, driving up prices, and expecting their new hometowns to change to fit their needs.

"[Locals] felt like Californians were an invasive species of some sort," said Viviani. "They felt like they made the prices too high, they were a little too money-focused. There was a peaceful, nature-centric kind of culture in that area and the Californians came in and had this 'hurry up' attitude."

"A lot of people are afraid that us liberal Californians are coming to invade and change their politics," added Jim Doucette, 58, who moved to Boise after he retired from the Sacramento Fire Department.

It's essentially gentrification, being called "Californiacation."

Despite being from Boise originally, Mullins, who used to work for SFGATE, said she and her husband are sometimes lumped in with deep-pocketed Californians. They were popping into an overpriced open house just to check it out when someone drove by yelling, "They're coming! They're gonna buy it!"

"We were in our car and we still have our California plates," Mullins explained, laughing. "They're happy to be more aggressive when you have California plates. We really need to get rid of these plates."

Ashley Butler, 35, who lives in Salem, Ore., with her husband and two kids, expressed a similar sentiment.

"I've changed my license plates and that made a big difference," she said. "Initially I didn't feel they were overly welcoming to Californians, but I feel like I've assimilated."

Butler lived in the Bay Area her whole life, first in San Jose then Concord, before making the move up north at the behest of her husband. "I thought, 'I'll do this for you and when it doesn't work we'll move back.' And then it turned out I really liked it."

In Concord, Butler explained, childcare for her two young daughters cost nearly as much as her paycheck from social work. On top of that, they didn't even like the area they were living in. But things looked different in Oregon.

"We got twice the house and five times the amount of land," Butler said. "It was an easy choice."

The median home value in Salem is $265,500, according to Zillow. It's about the same in Boise ($263,300), higher in Portland ($425,500) and at a record high in Seattle at around $765,000.

And while native Seattleites' jaws may be dropping at that figure, San Franciscans will read it and think, "What a steal!" Zillow lists the median home value in San Francisco at just under $1.4 million. In San Jose it's closer to $1.1 million and in Oakland it's more like $750,000.

For those we spoke to, affordable housing far and away made up for any kind of backlash they've received since relocating.

And while it's not as diverse ("You can walk into a restaurant and literally everyone is white. And at first it's a little unsettling," said Butler) and there are still some things that confuse California ex-pats ("People don't even go over the speed limit," Doucette was amazed to learn), most don't regret making the move to the Pacific Northwest.

But Bay Area refugees, be warned: The problems you're fleeing may be following close behind you. Hanes lamented the influx of tech workers and the increase in traffic he has seen in Portland of late. It seems "Californiacation" has taken hold.

"Californians come on up," he said. "It will remind you a lot of home."


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1162 on: July 26, 2018, 03:18:35 pm »
Southern California home sales crash, a warning sign to the nation

Southern California home sales hit the brakes in June, falling to the lowest reading for the month in four years. Sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums dropped 11.8 percent year over year, as prices shot up to a record high, according to CoreLogic. The report covers Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

Sales fell 1.1 percent compared with May, but the average change from May to June, going back to 1988, is a 6 percent gain.

The weakness was especially apparent in sales of newly built homes, which were 47 percent below the June average. Part of that is that builders are putting up fewer homes, so there is simply less to sell.

“A portion of last month’s year-over-year sales decline reflects one less business day for deals to be recorded compared with June 2017,” noted Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst. “But affordability and inventory constraints are likely the main culprits in last month’s sales slowdown, which applied to all six of the region’s counties and across most of the major price categories.”
Fewer affordable homes

The median price paid for all Southern California homes sold in June was a record $536,250, according to CoreLogic, a 7.3 percent increase compared with June 2017. While part of that is due to a mix shift, since there are fewer lower-priced homes for sale, it is becoming increasingly clear that fewer buyers are able to play in the higher price ranges.

“Sales below $500,000 dropped 21 percent on a year-over-year basis, while deals of $500,000 or more fell about 3 percent, marking the first annual decline for that price category in nearly two years,” said LePage. “Home sales of $1 million or more last month rose just a tad – less than 1 percent – from a year earlier following annual gains of between 5 percent and 21 percent over the prior year.”

LePage points to the rise in mortgage rates over the past six months, increasing significantly a borrower’s monthly payment. Rates haven’t moved much in the past month, but are suddenly going higher again this week, pointing to even further weakness in affordability.

In the past, California, one of the largest housing markets in the nation, has been a predictor for the rest of the country. Home prices have been rising everywhere, amid a critical housing shortage. Prices usually lag sales by several months, and sales are beginning to crumble, even as more inventory comes on the market. The supply of homes for sale increased annually in June for the first time in three years, according to the National Association of Realtors, but sales fell for the third straight month.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1161 on: July 22, 2018, 07:24:36 am »
Are builders catching up to Southern California’s housing shortage?

Southern California builders are putting a dent in the regional housing shortage, selling new homes at a pace not seen in nine years.

CoreLogic data shows 18,117 new residences sold in the 12 months ended in May across the four counties covered by the Southern California News Group. That’s the best performance since January 2009, and it’s up 7.7 percent in a year.

This means new housing’s share of sales also grows. Builders were responsible for 8.1 percent of all Southern California home purchases in the past year. That’s the highest share of sales since March 2009.

Still, the upswing looks sluggish compared with housing development before the Great Recession.

From 2000 through 2006, Southern California builders were selling homes more than twice as fast as today at a 43,000 units-a-year pace. (Don’t forget one reason for recently modest homebuilding — that last development frenzy ended badly when real estate’s bubble burst.)

Newly constructed housing’s recent surge is a sharp contrast to resales of Southern California’s existing homes, a market that until recently has suffered from limited inventory: 224,296 homes sold in the 12 months, down 2.8 percent in a year and off 4.4 percent from the post-recession peak of September 2013.

And according to ReportsOnHousing, Southern California house sellers are finding it takes two weeks longer to get an existing home from new listing to escrow this summer vs. a year ago.

ReportsOnHousing tracks homebuying patterns found in real estate broker networks: supply (active listings); year-to-date increase in supply; demand (new escrows in past 30 days); and “market time” (a measure of selling speed of days it takes a typical listing to enter escrow).

In the four-county region, the supply of existing residences on the market grew to 33,639 listings July 12 — up 2,738 units for sale in a year or 9 percent. That’s also up 2 percent vs. the 6-year average.

Year to date, sellers have grown the listing count by 9,925 listings. That’s triple the 3,313 added in 2017 in the same period and well above the average increase of 6,635 in 2013-2017.

More choices and slower decision-making mean Southern California’s “market time” — an estimate of selling speed — was at 80 days on July 12, up from 66 days a year earlier and an average 74 days in 2012-2017.

Here’s a look at recent housing data for the four counties — how home sales, new and existing residences, fared in the 12 months ended in May plus how the July 12 supply of existing homes on the market shapes up …

Orange County

New homes: 5,088 sales — above 5,000 for five months, best since January 2007.

Builder’s share: 13.4 percent — above 13 percent for seven months, best since June 2008.

Existing homes: 32,828 resales — down 1.8 percent in a year and off 1.9 percent from the recent peak of October 2017.

Supply: 6,579 listings, up 596 residences for sale in a year or 10 percent.

Market time: 80 days vs. 63 a year earlier and an average 69 days in 2012-2017.

Riverside County

New homes: 4,977 sales — above 4,900 for 33 months, best since March 2010.

Builder’s share: 11.6 percent in past 12 months — eighth month below 12 percent after 31 months above it.

Existing homes: 37,978 resales — off 1.1 percent from recent peak January 2011.

Supply: 8,597 listings, up 859 residences for sale in a year or 11 percent; and up 6 percent vs. six-year average.

Demand: 2,760 new escrows, down 292 sales contracts in 12 months or -10 percent; and down 4 percent vs. previous six years.

Market time: 93 days vs. 76 a year earlier and an average 88 days in 2012-2017.

Los Angeles County

New homes: 4,205 sales — above 4,200 for seven months, best since April 2011.

Builder’s share: 5.2 percent — at 5.2 percent or higher for seven months, best since April 2011.

Existing homes: 76,927 in past 12 months — — off 4.8 percent from the recent peak of July 2013.

Supply: 12,989 listings, up 835 residences for sale in a year or 7 percent; but down 2.7 percent vs. six-year average.

Market time: 72 days vs. 63 a year earlier and an average 68 days in 2012-2017.

San Bernardino County

New homes: 3,847 sales — above 3,000 for 10 months, best since February 2009.

Builder’s share: 11.9 percent — highest since January 2009.

Existing homes: 28,541 resales — off just 0.2 percent from the recent peak set in April.

Supply: 5,474 listings, up 448 residences for sale in a year or 9 percent; and up 6 percent vs. six-year average.

Market time: 81 days vs. 66 a year earlier and an average 79 days in 2012-2017.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1160 on: June 26, 2018, 08:38:06 pm »
Families earning $117,000 now qualify as "low income" in California's Bay Area

A report out this week from the Department of Housing and Urban Development finds the median price for a single-family home in the Bay Area is now $935,000. A family earning $117,000 now qualifies as "low income" in the region.

CBS News went to see California's red-hot housing market with realtor Larry Gallegos. He showed us a house you would think he couldn't give away. But Gallegos says the home, complete with leaks in the roof, sold for $1.23 million. The buyer beat out six competing offers, all above the asking price.

"It's a little mind blowing, but it is the norm around here," Gallegos said.

That norm is fueled by thousands of well-paid tech workers who have driven up the median price of a San Francisco house to $1.6 million dollars, the highest in the country. While housing prices are rising faster than incomes nationwide, nowhere is it more evident than in the Bay Area, where home values have soared a staggering 64 percent over the last five years.

That could explain how a 1,000-square-foot shell of a house in the heart of Silicon Valley sold for close to $1 million dollars. Also recently listed? A burned out home near Google and Apple.   

Serious buyers also better bring cash. Just ask Sally Kuchar, who tracks real estate for the website Curbed San Francisco.

"We cannot afford to live here, nor could we afford to live pretty much anywhere in the Bay Area," she said.

The same goes for teachers, hospital workers, police officers and working people all over, who make up the lifeblood of any community. 

One flier could speak for the entire Bay Area housing market:  "Enter at your own risk."


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1159 on: June 26, 2018, 05:40:42 pm »
U.S. Housing Will Get Even Less Affordable
More investor-owned properties and rising construction costs are just two reasons homes are out of reach for many.

The U.S. housing sector has mostly recovered from the subprime mortgage-led collapse. The homeownership rate has started rising again, to 64.2 percent from 62.9 percent in mid-2016, and the gap between rental and mortgage costs has moved in favor of single-family owners. Also, first-time home buyers totaled 2.1 million last year, almost back to the housing boom peak.

Still, buyers and realtors decry the lack of affordable inventory. The National Association of Realtors just said the inventory of available properties for sale tumbled 6.1 percent last month to the lowest ever for a May in the history of its data Why aren’t market forces filling this need? Single-family housing starts were at a 936,000 annual rate in May, half their 2006 peak level. But multi-family starts came in at a 414,000 rate, well above the 300,000 norm even though apartment vacancy rates have been rising.

These imbalances are due to both supply and demand issues. When the subprime mortgage bubble burst and single-family house prices plummeted 34 percent, homeownership collapsed from its 69.2 percent peak in the fourth quarter of 2004 as many foreclosed homeowners were busted back to being renters. So developers and builders concentrated on rental apartments, flooding the market.

Much of the single-family building in recent years focused on larger houses that appealed to upscale buyers who still had the necessary downpayment money and mortgage borrowing capability. Houses with nine or more rooms jumped from 12.5 percent of the total in 2007 to 16.5 percent in 2014, the latest data.

At the same time, investors, both individuals and increasingly institutions, bought legions of foreclosed single-family houses and turned them into rentals. Some builders constructed such dwellings to be used directly for rentals. As a share of total housing units, the portion geared to investors jumped from 30 percent before the housing boom to 34 percent today, an increase of eight million rental units. Investors are happy with their rental returns and tend to keep them longer than homeowners. That’s one reason why the median number of years that owners keep their properties has jumped from six before the housing collapse to 10 currently.

Lower turnover also results from postwar babies staying in their owned houses as they postpone retirement. The labor force of those over 65 is up 44 percent since the beginning of 2011 even though their number has increased just 29 percent.

Moderate-cost house construction is also restrained by rising building costs. Many of those Central American carpenters, masons and plumbers who facilitated the housing boom have gone home and tighter border controls are keeping out those who would like to work in the U.S. Construction industry wages have leaped 19.4 percent in nominal terms — 3.7 percent in real terms — since January 2010, when the unemployment rate in that sector peaked.

Materials costs are also jumping. Framing lumber in May cost 39 percent more than a year earlier due to the 20 percent tariff the Trump administration placed on Canadian lumber imports last year as well as forest fires and insect damages. Steel prices are up as well, with the new tariffs on imports. Homebuilding is further curtailed by stringent environmental and zoning regulations.

On the demand side, increases in home prices have outstripped income and asset gains of younger potential homebuyers. Many lack downpayment money as student debt soars. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York calculates that increases in college costs and student debt from 2001 to 2009 explains 11 percent to 35 percent of the 7.7 percentage-point drop in the homeownership rate of those in the 28 to 30 age bracket between 2007 and 2015. Those under 35 have median savings of only $1,500, and it’s just $5,000 for the 35-to-44 age group.

Those with poor credit scores and unreliable gig economy incomes face stringent credit standards, even for 3.5 percent downpayment loans from the Federal Housing Administration. Also, many prime-age men have dropped out of the labor force, lowering their homeownership chances. And, marrying later in life, low fertility rates and other lifestyle changes also cut demand. 

Residential construction is a small but very volatile component of the economy, accounting for 3.9 percent of GDP in the first quarter. Still, it can have oversized effects on overall economic performance due to its volatility. As a share of real GDP, it fell from 6.7 percent in late 2005 to 2.5 percent in early 2011 during the subprime mortgage collapse. That decline of 4.2 percentage points in itself constitutes a major recession.

Housing activity is likely to recover further, but many of the supply and demand deterrents are unlikely to dissipate soon. As a result, residential construction is likely to be a much more subdued component of the economy for some time.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1158 on: June 19, 2018, 04:13:57 pm »
L.A.-area house prices rise nearly 8% in May as Orange County’s price hits record high

Southern California house prices were up in May for a 72nd consecutive month, rising 7.7 percent year over year in the Los Angeles metro area and 6.8 percent in the Inland Empire, the California Association of Realtors reported Tuesday, June 19.

The median price of an existing single-family home — or price at the midpoint of all sales — hit an all-time high in Orange County, rising 5.4 percent to $838,000, the Realtor report said.

That’s the eighth-highest median in the state, trailing San Franciso (median $1.03 million), five other Bay Area counties and Mono County, north of Mammoth.

Riverside County had the region’s highest appreciation rate, however. The median house price there rose 9.3 percent to $409,925, an 11-year high.

Los Angeles County’s price gain was close behind, rising 9.1 percent to $536,940. In San Bernardino County, the median increased 4.6 percent to $285,000.

House prices have increased on an annual basis in all Southern California four counties since June 2012.

Sales, however, were down everywhere in the region but San Bernardino County, due to a very low number of homes on the market and higher mortgage interest rates.

Sales were down 8.7 percent from May 2017 levels in Riverside County, 7.4 percent in Orange County and 5.5 percent in Los Angeles County. In San Bernardino County, sales increased 2.1 percent from a year ago.

The unsold listings in the Los Angeles metro area were equal to 3.4 months — that is, it would take 3.4 months to sell everything on the market at the current sales pace — well below the six-month level considered to be a balanced market between buyers and sellers. The listing supply equaled 3.6 months in the Inland Empire.

The Realtor data is the first of at least four key market reports for May, with CoreLogic’s all-home median price and sales survey due out later this week.

Statewide, the median home price also reached a record high in May, while home sales retreated both on a monthly and annual basis, the Realtor association reported.

May’s statewide median home price was $600,860, up 9.2 percent from May 2017, hitting a new high for the first time in more than 10 years.

Existing, single-family home sales totaled 409,270 in May on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, down 4.6 percent from May 2017.

Sales likely will be tempered in the coming months due to higher home prices coupled with rising mortgage rates, said CAR President Steve White.

“The softening in May home sales was due in part to the spike in interest rates in mid-April, when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped … (to) the highest level since 2014,” White said. “Additionally, the specter of rate increases earlier in the year may have pulled sales forward into the first quarter, which resulted in the subpar performance in the last couple of months.”


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1157 on: June 16, 2018, 09:21:33 am »
Californians will make a big decision on rent control in November

California voters will decide in November whether to give cities and counties new freedom to expand the use of rent control after an initiative backed by tenant groups earned a spot Friday on this fall’s ballot.

The initiative would repeal a decades-old state law that prevents local governments from passing most new rent control laws.

Supporters, who collected at least 407,769 signatures to put the measure before voters on Nov. 6, said its success was a reflection of a widespread affordable housing problem.

“It recognizes that millions of California residents are struggling to afford their homes and can’t wait any longer for relief,” said Damien Goodmon, the campaign’s director for the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, the proponent of the initiative.

Supporters have also pointed out the Legislature still has an opportunity to act on its own to expand rent control and have the measure withdrawn from the November ballot. But lawmakers have not been able to find an alternative that satisfies both sides in the debate.
Coverage of California politics »

The campaign is expected to be one of the highest profile and expensive in California this year. Opponents such as California Apartment Assn., which represents landlords, has estimated it will spend upwards of $60 million to defeat the initiative, and is already running social media campaigns against it.

The measure’s most vocal opponents didn’t immediately respond to Friday’s announcement.

The rent control battle comes as California continues to face a housing affordability crisis. Six of the nation’s 11 most expensive rental markets are in the state, and rents have increased 40% across the Bay Area in the last three years, according to a January report from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. Median rent for a two-bedroom apartment is $1,798 in Los Angeles and $3,377 in San Francisco, the report found.

These prices affect low-income residents the most: 1.7 million California families pay more than half their income on rent, according to the state housing department.

Rent control, tenants’ groups argue, is necessary to insulate people from price hikes and allow them to stay in their neighborhoods. But economists, including liberal ones, contend that rent control leads to decreases in home building, and housing shortages are a key driver of California’s affordability problem.

Fifteen cities across the state have some form of rent control. Los Angeles’ program is limited to apartment buildings built before October 1978, and city leaders aren’t allowed to change it. That’s because of a state law known as the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, which prohibits local governments from implementing rent control on buildings constructed after 1995. The law also froze existing rent control laws in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco. Costa-Hawkins also blocks cities from putting rent control rules on single-family homes and allows landlords to charge market rate after a rent-controlled tenant moves out.

Though the November ballot measure would repeal Costa-Hawkins, new rent control policies would not automatically go into effect. Rather, the repeal would allow cities and counties to pass additional rent control measures.

The initiative has divided prominent Democrats. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has endorsed the effort, saying it’s unfair that rent control doesn’t cover tenants in newer buildings. But Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the leading gubernatorial candidate, opposes it. He wants to increase protections for renters but argues a Costa-Hawkins repeal is too aggressive. Newsom’s challenger in November, Republican businessman John Cox, also opposes it.

In January, legislation to repeal Costa-Hawkins failed to advance out of an Assembly committee after hours of heated testimony from struggling renters and landlords worried about their investments. Two Democrats on the committee, Assemblymen Ed Chau of Arcadia and Jim Wood of Healdsburg, did not vote for it, citing concerns about possible slowed housing construction.

By that point, however, the initiative campaign was already underway. The primary financial backer of the measure is the Los Angeles-based AIDS Healthcare Foundation, which has so far contributed $1.6 million to the campaign. The organization, which argues its focus on housing benefits the low-income AIDS patients it serves, is a veteran of recent state and local ballot measures. Two years ago, the group raised nearly $20 million in a losing effort aimed at lowering prescription drug prices in California.

Landlord groups have offered a number of concessions in an effort to stave off the initiative. An apartment association representative said the organization could accept rent control on more recently built properties. The group also endorsed a proposal from researchers at UC Berkeley as an alternative to repealing Costa-Hawkins. The researchers suggested statewide annual rent caps on inflation plus 5%, alongside property tax breaks for landlords who convert their apartments to those serving low-income residents.

But tenant organizations say those efforts do not go nearly far enough, especially as bills that would increase benefits for tenants continue to be easily defeated in the Legislature.

Time is running short for a compromise. Backers say they have no intention of pulling back on the initiative and state elections officials formally certify November ballot initiatives on June 28.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1156 on: June 13, 2018, 06:53:43 am »
California employment grows while home prices push some away

California employment hit a record high of 18.5 million in April, but rising home prices and a limited supply of housing are continuing to drive some people away, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast, which was released Wednesday.

The number of people leaving California is small, the study said, comprised in part of retirees who have been waiting for the equity in their homes to rise so they can sell and move to less expensive locales.

Escalating home prices have likewise fueled a turnover of one-income families to two-income households and ignited increased demand among higher-income workers with smaller family sizes, according to the report.

The demand for housing is broad — coming not just from Californians, but from people all over the world who are lured by the Golden State’s temperate climate, soaring mountains and sunny beaches.

That and the state’s inherent shortage of homes have pushed prices beyond the reach of many would-be buyers.

The California Association of Realtors‘ Housing Affordability Index shows that only 32 percent of households in the Los Angeles metro area could afford to buy a median-priced home during the first quarter of 2018, down from 33 percent from a year earlier. In the Inland Empire, where prices are considerably cheaper, affordability was 43 percent, down from 44 percent a year earlier.

And despite the demand for more homes, fewer units are needed to accommodate California’s workforce as the state has reached full employment and job growth has slowed.

Home prices are rising

Figures from CoreLogic show Los Angeles County’s median home price hit $590,000 in April, a 7.3 percent increase from a year earlier. Orange County’s median price rose 5.9 percent during the same period to $715,000.

Prices are considerably lower in the Inland Empire, although they’re rising there as well. San Bernardino County’s median price showed a 10 percent year-over-year increase in April, rising to $330,00, and Riverside County’s median price rose 6.1 percent to $375,000.

Some have reached a limit

Many buyers are willing to fork over a lot of money to buy a home in California. But there’s a limit to what some will pay.

“Values have escalated to the point where there’s a kind of tug of war going on between buyers and sellers,” said Steven Thomas, an analyst with the real estate information firm Reports on Housing. “If a home isn’t priced close to that last comp — even though the supply is really limited — buyers aren’t biting.”

Homebuilding to accelerate

Homebuilding across California is expected to accelerate to about 140,000 units a year by 2020. Builders filed permits to build 111,000 units in the state last year, and 125,000 units are expected this year, according to Anderson Forecast Director Jerry Nickelsburg.

The forecast expects total employment in California to increase 1.7 percent this year, 1.8 percent next year and 0.8 percent in 2020 with the state’s unemployment rate settling at 4.3 percent.

The record employment count of 18.5 million in April (which includes farm workers, non-farm workers and non-payroll sole proprietors) was 9.4 percent above the state’s pre-recession peak.

Continued economic growth is projected for California although risks to the forecast remain elevated, the report said. The increase in the federal deficit will put pressure on the international trade deficit, which increases the likelihood of trade actions that would depress the state’s logistics and export industries.

California is currently at full employment, which has slowed the state’s job growth, Nickelsburg said.

“We expect that 2018 will be a pretty reasonable year,” he said. “But we’re running out of people to fuel the growth … and we’re relatively long into this expansion.”

Homeless population

The report also addresses California’s ever-growing homeless population.

Figures show the percentage of homeless people in the state increased to 0.34 percent in 2017 from 0.32 percent in 2012.

In Los Angeles County (measured on a shorter timeline), the percentage rose to 0.54 percent (55,000 homeless) in 2017 from 0.35 percent (35,500) in 2013.

The county’s percentage of unsheltered homeless saw an even bigger increase, rising to 0.39 percent (40,000) in 2017 from 0.23 percent (22,600) in 2013.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1155 on: June 01, 2018, 08:06:37 am »
Homesellers getting antsy? Southern California listings triple to start 2018

Are Southern California homeowners a tad nervous?

The number of homes put on the market so far this year has more than tripled vs. 2017, according to ReportsOnHousing. It tracks homebuying patterns found in real estate broker networks: supply (active listings) and how that’s changed, year-to-date; demand (new escrows in past 30 days); and “market time” (a measure of selling speed from listing to escrow).

In the four-county Southern California region, as of May 17, listing inventories are up 7,066 since New Year’s Day — more than triple a rise of 2,071 in the same period in 2017 and well above 2016’s increase of 5,172.

That listing surge brought Southern California supply to 30,215 residences on the market, up 556 in a year — a 2 percent increase— yet down 3 percent vs. the 2013-2017 average.

Even with more choices, there were only 13,990 new escrows, down 1,059 sales contracts in 12 months — down 7 percent — and down 2 percent vs. previous five years.

House hunters have more time to shop as expected market time, listing to escrow, was 65 days on May 17 vs. 59 days a year earlier and an average 66 days in 2013-2017.

Here is how county markets shaped up as of May 17, according to ReportsOnHousing …

In Los Angeles County …

Market time: 59 days vs. 52 a year earlier and an average 58 days in 2013-2017.

Supply: 11,417 listings, up 241 residences for sale in a year or 2 percent; and down 3 percent (2013-17).

Supply, year-to-date: Up 3,368 listings vs. a rise of 1,478 a year earlier and an increase of 2,284 in 2016.

Demand: 5,824 new escrows, down 597 sales contracts in 12 months or 9 percent; and down 6 percent vs. previous five years.

In Orange County …

Market time: 63 days vs. 58 a year earlier and an average 59 days (2013-2017).

Supply: 5,730 listings, up 107 residences for sale in a year or 2 percent; and down 1 percent (2013-2017).

Supply, year-to-date: Up 2,170 listings vs. a rise of 1,389 a year earlier and an increase of 1,871 in 2016.

Demand: 2,726 new escrows, down 188 sales contracts in 12 months or 6 percent; and down 8 percent vs. previous five years.

In Riverside County …

Market time: 78 days vs. 74 a year earlier and an average 87 days in 2013-2017.

Supply: 8,317 listings, down 9 residences for sale in a year and down 6 percent (2013-2017).

Supply, year-to-date: Up 813 listings vs. a dip of 732 a year earlier and an increase of 653 in 2016.

Demand: 3,180 new escrows, down 184 sales contracts in 12 months or 5 percent; and up 2 percent vs. previous five years.

In San Bernardino County …

Market time: 63 days vs. 58 a year earlier and an average 70 days in 2013-2017.

Supply: 4,751 listings, up 217 residences for sale in a year or 5 percent; and down 1 percent vs. 2013-17 average.

Supply, year-to-date: Up 715 listings vs. a dip of 64 a year earlier and an increase of 364 in 2016.

Demand: 2,260 new escrows, down 90 sales contracts in 12 months or 4 percent; and up 9 percent vs. 2013-17 average.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1154 on: May 31, 2018, 08:34:12 pm »
I'd visit Vermont but the state couldn't pay me enough to move there.

Vermont will pay you $10,000 to move there and work remotely

Remote workers: the state of Vermont wants you.

Starting in 2019, Vermont will pay people who move there and work remotely for an out-of-state employer $10,000 over two years to cover relocation expenses, coworking memberships, computers, internet, and other work-related expenses. Gov. Phil Scott signed the bill into law on Wednesday (May 30).

The northeastern US state of 625,000 people has gorgeous landscapes, great ski slopes—and a rapidly shrinking tax base. Vermont is aging faster than the rest of the US population, an economic crisis that has prompted some creative solutions from state officials. In addition to the remote worker plan, Vermont has also launched a program called “Stay to Stay Weekends” aimed at convincing the state’s 13 million annual tourists to relocate there. Visitors who plan their trips during one of the four designated weekends from April to October can network with employers, entrepreneurs, and realtors.

The first-come, first-served remote worker grants are only available to new residents who relocate on or after Jan. 1, 2019. Vermont has budgeted grants for about 100 new remote workers in the first three years of the program and about 20 additional workers per year for every year after. But if you really want to make sure that life in the Green Mountain State is for you, schedule a visit in the winter first.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1153 on: May 23, 2018, 10:45:17 am »
Home prices hit record $520,000 in Southern California as buyers compete for limited supply

Southern California home prices notched yet another record in April, with the median price hitting $520,000 amid strong buyer competition for a limited supply of homes on the market, the latest CoreLogic housing report shows.

That lack of supply likely accounted last month’s sales dip compared with a year earlier, the real estate data firm reported Wednesday, May 23.

The median price, or the price at the midpoint of all sales, was up 7.2 percent, or $35,000,  from April 2017, CoreLogic figures show.

Median home prices also set records in two other counties in the region: Los Angeles County’s all-home median hit $590,000, up 7.3 percent or $40,000 from a year earlier. San Diego County’s median hit an all-time high of $570,000, rising 8.6 percent or $45,000 over the previous 12 months.

Orange County — the region’s priciest county — had a median of $715,000, down $10,000 from a record high of $725,000 reached in March. But that still was up 5.9 percent or $40,000 year over year.

Riverside County ‘s median rose 6.1 percent year over year to $375,500 in April, and San Bernardino County’s median shot up 10 percent to $330,000.

CoreLogic tallied 20,110 home sales in April, which was down 1.5 percent, or 310 transactions, from April 2017.

Sales fell for both new and existing homes.

Builders saw transactions tumble almost 1 percent to 1,717 sales – 15 fewer than a year before. Existing home sellers closed 295 fewer sales in April, a 1.6 percent drop year over year to 18,401 resale houses and condos.

Three counties – Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura – had sales drops in April, CoreLogic reported. Sales were up from a year ago in Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1152 on: May 03, 2018, 06:44:34 am »
The problem may be much worse today, but I remember even in the '80s companies had a hard time attracting employees from other states due to the high cost of housing in CA.

High housing costs are driving out lower-income Californians, reports say

California lost lower-income residents to other states over a recent 11-year period, while gaining wealthier households from elsewhere in the U.S. The disparity reflects the state's sky-high rents and home prices, according to several reports released Thursday.

The studies, produced by Beacon Economics for public policy nonprofit Next 10, mirror findings from the groups two years ago, as well as a flurry of other research that's documented California's persistent housing crisis.

The organizations say the numbers underscore the depth of the affordability problem. They called for policy changes that would increase housing supply so "low-wage residents are able to remain in California."

"In order to maintain a robust economy, California will need to ensure that residents across all income and employment levels are able to afford a basic cost of living in the state," the authors wrote.

For now that's not the case. From 2006 to 2016, 1.09 million more people left California for other states than moved here from other places in the U.S., with most decamping for Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, where housing costs are lower.

The level of so-called negative domestic migration was far greater in 2006 amid the housing bubble but declined as the economy and home prices cratered.

After bottoming out in 2012, the rate of out-migration has picked up in recent years as housing costs once again surged.

The state's median home price is now $537,315, reflecting a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 10% since 2012, according to real estate website Zillow. The median rent for a vacant apartment jumped an annual rate of nearly 5.5% to $2,428.

As a result, more people are leaving, according to Beacon and Next 10.

In 2016, 41,000 more households left the state than moved in. That's far more than the roughly 23,000 in each of the prior two years, and the only 3,400 in 2012, though it's less than the 46,300 that left in 2015.

Over the 10-year period, the state's population has continued to grow, reflecting births and immigration.

Those who leave tend to have lower incomes. From 2006 to 2016, the state lost a net 516,800 households earning less than $50,000. For households earning $50,000 or more, migration actually turned positive — a gain of 62,400.

There are also differences by region. The San Francisco Bay Area, which has the highest median home prices in the state, had more people arriving from out of state than leaving each year from 2014 to 2016.

That's the opposite of what was happening in Southern California — which, like the state as a whole, lost residents.

The reports didn't break down regional migration trends by income. But the authors theorized the positive figures up north reflected that the region's technology boom attracted many people from out of state who could afford to live there on high-tech salaries.

Even so, the Bay Area isn't immune to its high housing costs. Job growth has recently slowed in the tech sector, as has the rate of people moving to the Bay Area.

Earlier this year, a group of tech executives signed a letter advocating for more housing construction. It's become difficult, they wrote, to "recruit and retain employees when they could accept jobs in other states and pay a fraction of California's housing costs."

Southern California employers also say they've had to forgo growth opportunities because high costs are making it hard to recruit workers.

"Economies are living, breathing, dynamic organisms, and to the extent our housing supply stays virtually stagnant, that impacts our potential GDP growth," said Adam Fowler, research director at Beacon Economics.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1151 on: April 23, 2018, 08:42:11 pm »
Southern California home prices jump to a record high

Southern California's median home price jumped 8.4% in March from a year earlier, setting a new all-time high, as hopeful buyers engaged in bidding wars over a limited supply of homes on the market.

The six-county region's median price for new and resale houses and condos hit $519,000 last month, up $40,000 from a year earlier, real estate data provider CoreLogic said Monday. March's median topped the previous all-time high of $509,500 set in December.

Sales, meanwhile, fell 6.2% compared with the same month last year, in part because there were fewer homes on the market than in 2017.

"The rate we are seeing price appreciation is simply the lack of inventory," said Selma Hepp, chief economist with California brokerage Pacific Union International.

When adjusted for inflation, March's median price — the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less — is still 13.4% below the high reached during last decade's bubble. But on a year-over-year basis, prices have now risen every month for six straight years — the result of an increase in jobs, historically low mortgage rates and a shortage of homes for sale.

In the long run, the current rate of price increases is unsustainable, according to Hepp who forecasts a slowdown to a 5% annual gain in 2019 and 2% a year later.

But prices are unlikely to decline if the job picture holds steady, because unlike last decade, the market isn't driven by risky loans, but rather a strong economy and tight inventory, Hepp said.

One major reason for the supply shortage is that despite an increase in construction after the recession, home building hasn't returned to historically normal levels. The nationwide problem is blamed on a variety of factors, including a slew of builders that went belly up in the wake of the financial crisis.

In California, economists say, the problem is exacerbated because, for decades, too few homes have been built relative to job and population growth. Residents have fought against construction projects, expressing concern over traffic and the changing character of their neighborhoods.

In March, there were fewer homes for sale in all six Southland counties than there were the same month a year earlier, with declines ranging from 2.8% to 18.3%, according to data from online brokerage Redfin. In February, only one county — San Diego — had more homes for sale than a year earlier, and that increase was negligible: 0.2%.

The mismatch between supply and demand sent prices up throughout the region last month:

    Los Angeles County: The median price rose 6.6% to a record of $585,000.
    Orange County: The price rose 8.7% to a record of $725,000.
    Riverside County: The price rose 7.1% to $375,000.
    San Bernardino County: The price rose 7.5% to $328,000.
    San Diego County: The price rose 6.8% to a record of $550,000.
    Ventura County: The price rose 5.6% to $565,000.

Sales in all six counties dropped compared with a year earlier. The biggest decrease was in Riverside County, where sales fell 8.1%.

A jump in mortgage rates could also be affecting sales. Last week, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged nearly 4.5%, up from just under 4% at the beginning of the year, according to Freddie Mac. That is still well below the 6% rates heading into the financial crisis, or double digits in 1990.

Brad Roth, a San Fernando Valley real estate agent with Pinnacle Estate Properties, said some sellers aren't adjusting their prices to reflect the higher cost of borrowing and those houses are sitting longer.

But, he said, if a home is priced right and under $1 million, "they are flying off the market."

Case in point: Roth listed a four-bedroom house in Northridge on a recent Friday, pricing the 3,000-square-foot single-story at $899,000 even though he thought it was worth around $925,000 or $950,000. More than 250 people came through the weekend open house and by Sunday it sold, Roth said. The buyers paid $990,000.

At some point the price surge will end, but if the economy doesn't take a turn for the worse "this could run for a while," said Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.

"It's not that there is suddenly going to be a flood of [newly constructed] single-family houses and condos," he said.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1150 on: April 18, 2018, 09:01:06 pm »
This is crazy!  ???

Condemned house in Northern California sells for $1.23 million


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1149 on: March 26, 2018, 08:29:09 pm »
I have some crummy desert property and have received numerous solicitations from similar outfits.

None of them have come close to market value, if you believe the market value that some realtors quote. Then again, I had the stuff listed for nearly 10 years, with at least 4 different realtors, and never got a nibble.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1148 on: March 22, 2018, 03:51:38 pm »
These days mass mailings can easily be customized with personal info. It’s trivial and cheap.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1147 on: March 22, 2018, 03:50:58 pm »
Not enough housing is being built to satisfy demand.

How and why Southern California’s population grew so much in one year

Have you met your new neighbors?

There are more than 82,000 of them in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

That’s the estimated population increase between 2016 and 2017, according to data released Wednesday night, March 21, by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The biggest growth, not surprisingly, is in the Inland Empire, where housing is relatively cheaper and home construction is feverishly trying to keep up with demand.

Riverside County alone added almost 37,000 new residents during that period – the third-biggest population growth of any county in the U.S.

San Bernardino County brought in another 20,000 new residents, coming in at No. 18 in the nation.

Los Angeles and Orange counties also grew by almost 13,000 residents each, enough to put both of them in the top 40 on a list of 3,220 counties, including Puerto Rico’s municipios.

Nationwide, the growth was focused in southern states; Texas had 10 counties in the top 40, while Florida had nine. More than 1,400 counties shrank in population, led by the Illinois county that contains Chicago, while four Puerto Rico municipios were in the bottom 10.

Because all four Southern California counties are so huge already — Los Angeles County is the most populous in the U.S., and all four are in the top 15 — their growth wasn’t so remarkable percentage-wise.

Riverside County’s increase came out to 1.54 percent, or 389th in the nation. Los Angeles County’s increase was only 0.13 percent for a rank of 1,638.

Southern California is an attractive place to live for a variety of reasons: famously sunny weather, proximity to ocean surf and snowy mountains, a robust job market and world-class universities, said Hasan Ikhrata, executive director for the Southern California Association of Governments, a regional agency that coordinates on issues such as housing, transportation and population growth.

Not so attractive? A worsening housing crisis as both home prices and apartment rents rise. But housing is more affordable in the Inland counties than along the coast, which adds to their appeal.

The median home price was $710,000 in Orange County and $580,000 in Los Angeles County in February, according to CoreLogic. Compare that to $375,000 in Riverside County and $336,500 in San Bernardino County.

“Affordability is in the eye of the beholder,” Ikhrata said.

The rate of population growth has been rising in the Inland Empire since 2013, but it’s decreased most years since 2010 in the two coastal counties, the census data show.

The high housing costs are a primary factor in those slowing rates, Ikhrata said.

The housing costs also are beginning to make prospective employers nervous.

“Employers who want to move to L.A. and Orange County are thinking twice now because of housing,” he said.

He said that could even affect, for example, Amazon’s location decision for a second headquarters.

Meanwhile, a major driver of Inland Empire population growth has been the significant number of new jobs being created in the two-county region, said Karthick Ramakrishnan, associate dean for the UC Riverside School of Public Policy.

“It took a little bit longer than other regions to rebound from the recession,” he said, but the economy is strong now.

Ikhrata said international migration has been a strong factor in Los Angeles and Orange County’s growth in recent years, and slowing immigration rates are also partly responsible for slowing growth there.

The coastal counties’ population peak is within sight.

The California Department of Finance predicts that Los Angeles County will hit a ceiling in 2052 — at 11,279,077 residents — then will start slipping.

Orange County should peak in 2055 at a population of 3,621,879, according to the Finance Department, whose estimates and methodologies differ from those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties are on track to grow every year through at least 2060, the farthest into the future that the state forecasts. Riverside County could start that decade with at least 3.6 million residents; San Bernardino County, with at least 3.2 million.


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Re: Real Estate Trends
« Reply #1146 on: March 22, 2018, 02:13:56 pm »
Gem, Thanks for the reply... just concerned that these are more than mass mailings addressed to Occupant or Box Holder....and several things recently mailed here refer to a property we own in Oregon...arrgh ... life was so much easier before cyberspace.